First National Home Price Decline Foreshadowed

Written by Posted On Thursday, 30 August 2007 17:00

With one at a record low and another at a 10-year low, two lagging home price indicators this week clearly reveal worsening conditions on the home price front.

On Tuesday, the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 major metropolitan areas for the second quarter came in down 3.2 percent, compared to a year ago.

The new index is a record low of 183.89 -- the lowest point ever on the index since its inception back in January 1987.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's Home Price Index, also for the second quarter, revealed home prices nationwide rose only an average 3.2 percent nationwide, compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The increase was the lowest annual price change since the 1996-1997 period.

The indexes foreshadow what some economists believe will be the first national home price decline since federal housing agencies began keeping statistics in 1950.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index tracks prices of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas.

OFHEO's index tracks single-family home prices in more than 381 metropolitan areas and offers data on the metro, state and Census area levels.

Case-Shiller's index reveals major housing markets are taking the brunt of home price declines.

The Case-Shiller index covering 20 top metro areas for the month of June fell 3.5 percent, and the 10-city index dropped 4.1 percent, both year-over-year.

Among the 20 metros, 15 of them or 75 percent revealed year-over-year home price declines with only Atlanta, GA; Charlotte, NC; Dallas, TX; Portland, OR; and Seattle, WA avoiding home price declines.

"On a regional level, 17 of the 20 metro areas are showing declines in their annual growth rate from what was reported in May," says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC.

The big home price loser was Detroit where home prices were down 11 percent from a year ago. The big winner was Seattle where prices were up 7.9 percent, according to Cash-Shiller.

OFHEO's report reveals statewide year-over-year home price declines ranging from a 0.97 drop in Rhode Island to a 1.45 percent decline in Nevada, with California, Massachusetts and Michigan also revealing declines within that range.

"Significant price declines appear localized in areas with weak economies or where price increases were particularly dramatic during the housing boom," said OFHEO director James B. Lockhart.

Utah retained the title as top home price appreciation state with a 15.28 percent increase in prices during the past year ending in the second quarter, according of OFHEO.

Approximately 20 percent, or 61 of OFHEO's 287 "ranked" cities experienced home price downturns with Merced, CA suffering a 8.65 percent home price decline, the nation's largest.

Eighteen of the 20 cities having the lowest four-quarter appreciation rates were in Florida and California. Those cities experienced price declines of between 4.2 and 8.65 percent.

Among ranked cities, Wenatchee, WA had the greatest level of home price appreciation, 23.54 percent.

For 94 "unranked" cities, those with smaller numbers of home sales, only six revealed home price declines with the 5.49 percent year-to-year home price decline in the Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL area the largest.

Odessa, TX, yielded the greatest level of home price appreciation among smaller housing markets, 19.40 percent

"The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down," Shiller said.

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Broderick Perkins

A journalist for more than 35-years, Broderick Perkins parlayed an old-school, daily newspaper career into a digital news service - Silicon Valley, CA-based DeadlineNews.Com. DeadlineNews.Com offers editorial consulting services and editorial content covering real estate, personal finance and consumer news. You can find DeadlineNews.Com on LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter  and Google+

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