Home tours, mortgage applications and pending sales are rising as mortgage rates decline from the four-month high they hit in late November, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Mortgage rates are declining after last week’s cooler-than-expected jobs report made it clear the Fed will cut interest rates again this month. The average weekly rate is 6.69%, down from a four-month high of 6.84% two weeks earlier. That has pushed the typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment down to $2,527, its lowest level in more than two months.
Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a seasonally adjusted measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is up 8% year over year to just shy of its highest level since April, and mortgage-purchase applications are up nearly 20% from a month ago. Pending home sales rose 4.1% year over year during the four weeks ending December 8, similar to the increases Redfin has seen over the last two months.
Declining mortgage rates are one reason homebuyers are hitting the pavement. But there are two more impactful reasons demand is improving: The financial uncertainty surrounding the presidential election has passed, and buyers have accepted the fact that mortgage rates are likely to remain above 6% for the foreseeable future.
“This week’s data shows the increase in signals like home tours and mortgage applications from the last month is continuing. The recent decline in mortgage rates isn’t pushing demand to new heights,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “Rather, demand is settling into its new, post-election normal. In the months leading up to the election, house hunters were hibernating; demand was slower than we would have expected, even with high mortgage rates. Now, early-stage demand has jumped up to where we’d expect it to be.”
On the selling side, new listings are up 7.9% year over year, the biggest increase since June (except the 4 weeks ending November 24, when the increase was inflated due to Thanksgiving). Sellers are becoming more active for similar reasons as buyers. Additionally, some sellers are listing in hopes of taking advantage of the increased demand Redfin has seen over the last several weeks.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
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Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
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|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.75% (Dec. 11) |
Down from 7.08% three weeks earlier |
Down from 7.05% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.69% (week ending Dec. 5) |
Down from 6.84% three weeks earlier |
Down from 7.22% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Down 4% from a week earlier (as of week ending Dec. 6) |
Up 4% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Up 5% from a month earlier; highest level since April, except the 4 weeks ending Nov. 17 (as of week ending Dec. 8) |
Up 8%
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of Dec. 9) |
Down 7%
|
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
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U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Dec. 8, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
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|
Four weeks ending Dec. 8, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
Median sale price |
$383,875 |
6% |
|
|
Median asking price |
$381,995 |
6% |
|
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,527 at a 6.69% mortgage rate |
3.8% |
Lowest level since September |
|
Pending sales |
63,524 |
4.1% |
|
|
New listings |
63,168 |
7.9% |
|
|
Active listings |
980,776 |
11.3% |
Smallest increase since March |
|
Months of supply |
4.1 |
+0.2 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
27.2% |
Down from 29% |
|
|
Median days on market |
43 |
+7 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
24.3% |
Down from 26% |
|
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
98.5% |
-0.1 pt. |
|
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Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Dec. 8, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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Metros with biggest year-over- |
Metros with biggest year-over- |
Notes |
|
Median sale price |
Miami (13.3%) Warren, MI (11.5%) Milwaukee (10.4%) Cleveland (10.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (10%) |
Tampa, FL (-0.9%)
|
Declined in 1 metro |
|
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (17.2%) Los Angeles (14.9%) Cincinnati (12.8%) Jacksonville, FL (11.8%) Anaheim, CA (11%)
|
Houston (-6.2%) Miami (-6%) Detroit (-3.7%) Orlando, FL (-2.7%) West Palm Beach, FL (-2.7%) |
Declined in 8 metros
|
|
New listings |
San Francisco (24%) Columbus, OH (17.6%) Seattle (16.9%) San Jose, CA (15.9%) Washington, D.C. (15.7%) |
San Antonio (-10%) Orlando, FL (-5.5%) Newark, NJ (-4.6%) Atlanta (-3.2%) Portland, OR (-3.1%) |
Declined in 9 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-mortgage-rates-fall
