The uptick in early-stage homebuying activity immediately after the election is continuing, despite high home prices and mortgage rates
Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index is sitting near its highest level since September 2023, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a seasonally adjusted measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is up 7% year over year. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 17% month over month to their highest level since late January.
Pending home sales rose 6.5% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending December 1, on par with the annual increases Redfin has seen over the last two months.
There are a few reasons house hunters are coming out of the woodwork despite high mortgage rates and home prices:
- Many people were waiting for the election to pass before getting serious about buying a home. Redfin saw a burst in early-stage homebuying activity, like home tours, immediately after the election, and it has continued.
- Buyers have grown accustomed to elevated mortgage rates, and many have accepted they’re unlikely to come down anytime soon. The current weekly average rate is 6.81%, roughly the middle of the 6% to 7.8% range seen over the last two years.
“The market is strong, with a lot of pent-up demand after a slow summer and early fall,” said Mimi Trieu, a Redfin Premier agent in the Bay Area. “Buyers realized mortgage rates may not drop below 5%, and probably not below 6%, in the near future. They are also noticing there are not many desirable, move-in ready homes for sale that are priced reasonably, so they’re pushing forward and negotiating for good deals. Homes that have been sitting on the market since the summer or early fall are finally selling.”
On the for-sale side, new listings are up 3% year over year. Though that’s a modest increase, it’s the biggest in two months (with the exception of the prior 4-week period, when the year-over-year increase was inflated because of Thanksgiving).
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
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Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
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Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.86% (Dec. 4) |
Down from 7.08% two weeks earlier |
Down from 7.11% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.81% (week ending Nov. 27) |
Highest level since July |
Down from 7.22% |
Freddie Mac |
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Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Up 6% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 29) |
Down 21% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
|
Up 4% from a month earlier (as of week ending Dec. 1) |
Up 7%
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
Touring activity |
|
Down 36% from the start of the year (as of Dec. 1) |
At this time last year, it was down 25% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
|
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of Dec. 1) |
Unchanged
|
Google Trends |
Key housing-market data
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U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Dec. 1, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
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Four weeks ending Dec. 1, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
Median sale price |
$383,460 |
6.1% |
|
|
Median asking price |
$382,723 |
5.1% |
|
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,556 at a 6.81% mortgage rate |
3.3% |
Lowest level in 2 months |
|
Pending sales |
66,396 |
6.5% |
|
|
New listings |
65,322 |
3% |
|
|
Active listings |
991,732 |
11.1% |
Smallest increase since March |
|
Months of supply |
4.3 |
+0.2 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
28.6% |
Down from 31% |
|
|
Median days on market |
42 |
+7 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
24.6% |
Down from 27% |
|
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
98.5% |
-0.2 pts. |
|
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Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Dec. 1, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
|
Median sale price |
Detroit (14%) Newark, NJ (13%) Warren, MI (12.1%) Miami (11.5%) Montgomery County, PA (11.1%) |
Tampa, FL (-1.5%) Dallas (-0.5%) San Antonio (-0.4%)
|
Declined in 3 metros |
|
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (20.1%) Cincinnati (15.9%) San Francisco (15.5%) Jacksonville, FL (13.7%) Tampa, FL (13.6%) |
Miami (-11%) West Palm Beach, FL (-6.5%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-4.9%) Houston (-3.3%) Atlanta (-1.8%) |
Declined in 7 metros
|
|
New listings |
Washington, D.C. (14.6%) Philadelphia (13.3%) Baltimore (11.8%) Jacksonville, FL (11.3%) Phoenix (9.5%) |
San Antonio (-19.8%) Austin, TX (-18.7%) Portland, OR (-10.3) Atlanta (-9.6%) Newark, NJ (-8.3%) |
Declined in 16 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-tours-rise/
